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Past experience with Hubbert Linearization suggests that Hubbert Linearization exercise tends to underestimate the ultimately recoverable oil and natural gas resources.
To mitigate this “pessimistic” bias, I use the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s official projection to project US oil and natural gas production from 2016 to 2040, which may prove to be too optimistic.
From 2010 to 2015, world consumption of wind and solar electricity grew at an average annual rate of 23.9 percent.
According to World Bank and IMF data, gross world product (global economic output) was 107.0 trillion dollars (in 2011 constant international dollars) in 2015.
However, the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from 2012 to 2100 are within the range of RCP 4.5 projected in the IPCC Fifth Assessment report, which may lead to long-term global warming of 3 degrees Celsius relative to the pre-industrial The summary statistics from the 2014 report are reported in the following table (Table 1).
These can be compared with the summary statistics reported towards the end of this report.
World carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning are projected to peak in 2027.
About two years ago, I posted “World Energy 2014-2050” at Peak Oil Barrel (Political Economist 2014).
The posts can be found here: World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1) World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 2) World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 3) The 2014 report drew the following conclusion: It finds that world production of oil, natural gas, and coal may peak between 20.
The report projects the world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and other energies from 2016 to 2050.
It also projects the overall world energy consumption, gross world economic product, and energy efficiency from 2016 to 2050 as well as carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning from 2016 to 2100.From 2010 to 2015, world average energy efficiency grew at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent.